The Receipts // BLS JOLTS · Census BFS · Layoff to launch
The Receipts by Kathryn Finney

Forced to leave. Choosing what to build.

Layoffs settled below the pre-2020 baseline. New business applications climbed to a new floor and stayed. The two series, read together, are the receipt of a forced-transition pipeline that the unemployment rate does not show.

Annual average of monthly level Pre-2020 average (2015 to 2019)
BLS Layoffs and Discharges 2025 avg 1.75M · pre-2020 avg 1.78M · −0.03M
01.00M2.00M3.00M 1.81M2.65M1.40M1.49M1.69M1.65M1.75M1.72M PRE-2020 AVG · 1.78M 20192020202120222023202420252026 Q1
Census BFS Business Applications 2025 avg 470K · pre-2020 avg 277K · +193K
0187K373K560K 282K365K437K427K459K462K470K478K PRE-2020 AVG · 277K 20192020202120222023202420252026 Q1
Annual receipt · BLS layoffs and discharges, Census BFS business applications
Year Layoffs and discharges vs. baseline Business applications vs. baseline
20191.81M+0.03M282K+5K
20202.65M+0.87M365K+88K
20211.40M−0.38M437K+160K
20221.49M−0.29M427K+150K
20231.69M−0.09M459K+182K
20241.65M−0.13M462K+185K
20251.75M−0.03M470K+193K
2026 (Q1 avg)1.72M−0.06M478K+201K
Pre-2020 average (2015 to 2019)1.78Mbaseline277Kbaseline
5-year average since 2020 (2021 to 2025)1.60M−0.18M451K+174K
The exit isn't always a choice. What people do next, increasingly, is. Layoffs receded. Applications didn't. The pipeline runs through the gap.
Sources. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), Layoffs and Discharges (Total nonfarm, level, seasonally adjusted), monthly news releases, January 2015 through February 2026; series JTSLDL on FRED. US Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics (BFS), Total Business Applications (BA, seasonally adjusted), monthly series, January 2015 through February 2026. Annual values shown are simple averages of monthly levels. 2026 values are the Q1 average (January and February observed, March estimated from the latest BFS release). The pre-2020 baseline is the 2015 to 2019 monthly average.
Note. "Layoff to launch" is a framing of two co-moving series, not a single published metric. Census BFS does not publish the share of new business applications attributable to former full-time employees; the cross-reference here is structural and is the subject of the Receipts companion piece. Verify Q1 2026 averages against the May 2026 BFS release before publish, per the data integrity protocol.
The Receipts byKathryn Finney
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